A mere 60 days in the past that Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery admonished him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his displays were a symptom or the reason of Villa's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. As the in-form star swept in his second to restore the lead for Villa, the boss discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The team continued to a 10th successive win , despite not winning their opening six fixtures, are somehow only three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Title Contenders?
It remains a rather hard question to address. The historical record, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, while the positive results have accumulated.
Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side had an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a side which has just won ten consecutive victories, the Villans look curiously susceptible – yet at the moment the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to save the day with a couple of crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and it happened when facing Manchester United.
The initial strike came from an exquisite effort, curled right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. Against United, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival Villa must confront over the coming weeks. Their key man, surely, cannot maintain thrashing the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures might still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward could start scoring again.
- The attacking talent could transform into the player he was during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are due to regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky defensive unit.
This could contain the potential of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt back in October, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be spearheading a hunt for the title while looking like an essential Three Lions star.
This winning streak must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As the hero faced the North End when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.
